The Irishman (Netflix) The on-paper favorite in many industry experts’ eyes is one that will no doubt operate as catnip for many voters. Not only a Scorsese picture, but one boasting three unchallengeable screen legends, with four acting Oscars between them in Al Pacino, Robert De Niro, and Joe Pesci. When nominations are announced it would be a huge surprise not to see Scorsese’s latest effort sat atop the list with around 11 nominations, including its legendary trio and their director. This no doubt ‘obvious’ Academy choice would, in any other year be the heavy favorite to take home film’s biggest prize, but this grippingly melancholic and personal gangster tale faces many many threats… Parasite (Neon) Wouldn’t it be fitting to crown history’s first foreign language best picture winner only one year after many thought all hope was lost following “Roma” falling at the final hurdle to “Green Book.” Well, Bong Joon-Ho (“Snowpiercer”) and his impossible to talk about without spoiling “Parasite” may well be even better positioned than Cuaron’s personal masterpiece to steal the crown from under the noses of some of Hollywood’s elite. But how? As much as “Roma” was an undoubted critical darling, its position as a Netflix film was the one question mark against its best picture credentials, as voters (in the past) have often liked to see tangibles i.e. box office. And Neon’s thriller, whilst also currently holding the highest critical approval of those in the race (95 Metascore) has also become the highest-grossing Palme D’or winner in US history with over $14M and counting, and with an international haul just shy of $100M, it is an undoubted commercial hit, and that’s without Chinese and UK releases as of today. Not only does its jaw-dropping nature mean it will stick in the minds of voters, but its commercial appeal in the opinion of many give it a real shot at the big one. 1917 (Universal) The most recent entry in the race could make the loudest splash of all. Arriving late, as if to make the grandest of entrances, Sam Mendes’ war drama has, in some corners been called the directors ‘masterpiece’. Following two young British privates during the first world war and their impossible mission to deliver a message deep in enemy territory, the film also has a stylistic element that the academy has rewarded in the past. Mendes and DP Roger Deakins shot the film to entirely look like one take which was something that the Academy praised only five years ago in Alejandro Inarritu’s best-picture winning “Birdman”. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony) The undoubted ‘dark horse’ of the race, which is a strange title to label one of the most acclaimed films of the year, and one directed by Quentin Tarantino. Had it been released now and not in the summer we could be talking about this as the December favorite. A showcase of the pure magical talent possessed by three of Hollywood’s biggest stars, Leonardo DiCaprio, Brad Pitt, and Margot Robbie. And even though much has been made of Robbie’s lack of dialogue as Sharon Tate, it works for the films sheer celebration of her life, and in the end, what her life could have been. Most of the attention surrounding Tarantino’s ode to LA has been around Brad Pitt and his electrically funny and mesmerizing performance as stuntman Cliff Booth, and what looks set to be his battle with Al Pacino for best-supporting actor. But this film really shouldn’t be slept on for Best Picture, especially if last year’s decision to go with a film which ultimately uplifts, touches audiences emotionally, and aims to leave the world better than it found it is taken into consideration. Little Women (Sony) Speaking of a story aiming to touch audiences emotionally and uplift, this week has seen the end of the review embargo for Greta Gerwig’s adaptation of “Little Women”. A story adapted numerous times for both big and small screens, including just a few years ago (on the BBC) when Maya Hawke played the lead character, Jo. This time however Gerwig has given Louisa May Alcott’s famed novel the full Hollywood treatment. Top to bottom this film is littered with stars, from Saoirse Ronan as Jo in what the actress herself has called her ‘most accomplished performance’, to her sisters played by Eliza Scanlan, Emma Watson, and rising megastar Florence Pugh, and that’s all without mentioning Laura Dern, Meryl Streep, and Timothee Chalamet. However, even without the cast, its the bold narrative choices, that in places deviate from the original story that has connected with critics and those who have seen it thus far, with the film currently sat at an 89 Metascore after 23 reviews. Following the emergence of underdogs like “Joker”, “Bombshell”, “Parasite” etc this film found itself in real danger of slipping outside the best picture conversation, however, it may now find itself clawing back up the pecking order on many pundit’s predictions. Marriage Story (Netflix) In an ironic turn of events after losing out on last year’s best picture statue with “Roma”, Netlfix’s greatest threat to their own victory could, in fact, be themselves. Especially with the preferential ballot system in place for Oscar voters. This is because the streaming giant has another major player out for awards attention this season, Noah Baumbach’s heart-breaking yet amusing, devastating yet glorious, look at the breaking down of a marriage. Starring two locks for their respective lead acting categories in Adam Driver and Scarlett Johansson, the film (all be it for only the slight weight it carries these days) has the second-highest critical score behind “Parasite” (94 Metascore), and add to that the fact that a (likely at this point) snub for Baumbach in the directing category will not spell the end for the films best picture chances as it once would have, do represent this emotionally raw drama with a shot of its own. The Two Popes (Netflix) Netflix will also be hoping for a hat-trick of nominees with their own dark horse for the big prize in the shape of Fernando Meirelles’ “The Two Popes”. An unrelenting acting showcase, Meirelles, and writer Anthony McCarten combine for a (surprisingly) funny and touching look at the papacy. Following Anthony Hopkins, Pope Benedict and his future successor Cardinal Bergoglio (Jonathan Pryce) this film pit two of Britain’s greatest living actors against one another for just over two hours. Warmly received but not widely seen as of yet as it waits for its mid-December Netflix rollout, the film still finds itself in many top ten’s as far as contenders go. Whilst Meirelles himself has previous with the Academy having been nominated in 2002 for “City of God”. Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight) Slowly becoming the second most polarising (we’ll get to “Joker” next) film likely to be nominated this season. The mercurial Taika Waititi finds himself around the Oscar conversation for the first time since his short film “Two Cars, One Night” was nominated back in 2005. Having surprised many by winning the People’s choice award in Toronto, Taika’s anti-hate satire follows a young boy in Hitler’s army as he discovers his mother is hiding a Jewish girl and in which Waititi himself plays Jojo’s imaginary friend who…just happens to be Adolf Hitler. It’s slightly unclear which way the ax will fall on this film. If the nominations were today it would no doubt find itself nominated. However, on one side there are those championing the film, both critics and audiences alike, with its current 8.1 user score on IMDB and with some reviews (EW and TheWrap) praising its ‘Sweet humor’ and its ‘grandly entertaining provocation’. However, for every dose of praise, there have been shouts of ‘Hideous’ (from The Telegraph’s Robbie Collin) and “conventional and lazy” from our own EIC Jordan Ruimy. Without wishing to dig up this year’s four-time winner “Bohemian Rhapsody”, there are certain comparisons to be drawn here. Although Jojo is not even half as objectively bad as last year’s Queen flick, the film (just like “Boh Rap”) has incredibly staunch supporters, willing to fight the film’s cause with every inch of their being. But it remains to be seen if those supporters are in the Academy. Joker (Warner Bros) Whilst we’re drawing comparisons to the 2019 awards and looking at films that have polarised, it’s probably time to talk about possibly one of the most polarising films of the decade (critic wise that is). The love for Todd Phillips’ origin story of DC’s greatest villain from audiences has seen it gross over $1B worldwide, making it the most profitable Comic Book Movie ever made, having reached that figure off a measly $30M budget. Stats wise the film sits at a lofty 8.8 user rating on IMDB from nearly half a million votes (making it the 19th highest rated of all time) for all that’s worth anyhow. Whilst its Rotten Tomatoes audience score is 88%. Now compare that to its critical totals, 58 on Metacritic and 68% on RT and there is a serious similarity to “Bohemian Rhapsody”, itself a box-office smash. Something that film didn’t have however was the mite to muscle in and win best picture. So, is it possible for “Joker” to cause that shockwave? Having already underlined its awards prowess with Venice’s coveted Golden Lion, and with its lead, Joaquin Phoenix a shoo-in for a best actor nomination and viewed as one of the best of his generation, could “Joker”, much-maligned upon its announcement two years ago be the first Comic book film to take home Best Picture? Whilst the film in some corners has been called uncompromising and hair-raisingly bold, devastating and utterly beautiful, others have questioned its stereotypical use of mental illness and its remarkably unsubtle nature. Unsurprising given the film’s director Todd Phillips may be one of the most unsubtle directors in the business. Ford V Ferrari (Le Mans ’66) (Fox) A thrill ride of family entertainment. One that many believed would just preside in the acting and below the line categories come January. However, with standout performances from Christian Bale and Matt Damon, James Mangold (“Logan” “Walk the Line”) has crafted one of the biggest slices of the cinematic joy of the year and one apparently playing extremely well not only with audiences but with academy numbers as well. Bombshell (Lionsgate) This film interrupted the season with a bang and has also launched its lead Charlize Theron to the front of the queue in the best actress race. Feeling timely and important “Bombshell” details the events of the Fox News scandal with Theron playing TV anchor Megyn Kelly, Nicole Kidman playing Gretchen Carlson and with Margot Robbie as the fictional Kayla Pospisil. Sitting comfortably in a lot of top 10 lists at the moment even before reviews have been officially released its stand out performances and relevant subject matter will resonate with many voters. The Farewell (A24) In a stand-out year for foreign films which has also included the likes of Pedro Almodovar’s “Pain and Glory” Lulu Wang’s picture has a shot at joining “Parasite” as the best picture nominee. Once the foreign film to beat, Wang’s touching tale of love and loss has found itself slipping down the pecking order in recent months. This personal story about how her own family lied to their grandmother about her terminal cancer diagnosis in an attempt to prolong her life boasts fantastic performances from Shuzhen Zhao and the incomparable Awkwafina (themselves going for individual acclaim) and deserves a shot at gold. Uncut Gems (A24) Dizzying. Electrifying. Magnetic. Messy. Brilliant. Awful. You name it, it’s been said about the latest offering from the Safdie Brothers (“Good Time”). The film stars none other than Razzie magnet Adam Sandler as a charismatic New York city jeweler in search of the ultimate win. At this stage, Sandler seems like the film’s best shot, and if the acting race wasn’t already as stacked as it’s been for a decade he’d most certainly be a lock for best actor. Its best picture chances are much like its character’s fate throughout the film, up in the air. Studio A24 not only has this and “The Farewell” to campaign for but also has the high possibility “Waves” and Robbert Eggers bat-shit masterpiece “The Lighthouse” to manage. As of now, it seems “Uncut Gems” is around third/fourth on their roster. Waves (A24) This hard-hitting drama from Trey Edward Shults garnered a huge buzz during the festival season, mainly for its explosively emotional look at love, forgiveness, and unity in loss. Its progress, however, seems to have been altered by the debuting of some juggernauts in recent weeks. This leaves the film in a position where it could end up with a single nomination in the shape of supporting star Sterling K Brown. A Beautiful Day In Neighbourhood (Sony) A film that many (including myself) didn’t expect to like or connect to, but one that feels extremely personable. Starring Tom Hanks in what many consider the role he was born to play, children’s television host Fred Rogers, Marielle Heller (“Can You Ever Forgive Me”) adapts the true story of his meeting and unlikely friendship with journalist Tom Junod (changed to Lloyd Vogel for the film and played by Matthew Rhys). Its almost across the board praise has landed it around 8-10 on many best picture predictions, however, it is one that could be overshadowed by noisier pictures. No doubt Sony will hope the film doesn’t suffer the same fate as its sister documentary from last year, which won almost every precursor imaginable only to be snubbed of even an Oscar nomination. Knives Out (Lionsgate) Now we enter the contenders that preside on this list in hope rather than expectation. Rian Johnson’s so sharp it will cut you take on the ‘Whodunnit’ of course is far more likely to garner screenplay attention than best picture consideration, but its genius script and electric ensemble cast do provide it a glimmer of hope. In fact, their way into the conversation may be from a shock nomination at January’s SAG awards, as they replace best picture with best ensemble, which is usually a good barometer for what will show up at the Oscars. Its other best chance of making its way through a crowded field may be its box office. Releasing on Thanksgiving, if the film can manage to cut itself a slice of “Frozen 2”’s box office it may become more of a player. Richard Jewell (Warner Bros) No awards season this stacked would be complete without Clint Eastwood dropping a film out of nowhere, and this year its “Richard Jewell”. Detailing the tragic story of the man vilified by US press despite saving thousands from a bomb at the 1996 Olympics, its debut to press last week has thrown star Paul Walter Hauser in as an unlikely candidate for a best actor nomination. In fact, the Hollywood Reporter’s Scott Feinberg currently has both Hauser and the film up for nomination in their respective categories. However, with Warner Bros pushing hard for their record-breaking “Joker”, Clint and his latest may be left out in the cold. Just Mercy ( Warner Bros) Also hoping it can crash the part is Destin Daniel Cretton’s “Just Mercy”. Starring both Michael B Jordan and Jamie Foxx, the film tells the true story of how Walter ‘Johnny D’ Macmillan found himself wrongfully imprisoned and put on death row. Foxx at one stage looked a lock for a supporting actor nomination, but lukewarm reactions to the film when put next to the hard hitters out for glory this season appear to have derailed both his and the film’s chances. One thing that should be mentioned is the standout performance of Rob Morgan, who in my opinion should be sneaking into the supporting actor category for his gut-wrenching turn as Herbert Richardson. Rocketman (Paramount) Having been released back in April and with the Academy just having given awards to a musical biopic based on a music legend, you’d be forgiven for thinking Paramount and Dexter Fletcher’s Elton John biopic “Rocketman” was going to be nowhere near this awards season. But to be fair to both Paramount, Fletcher, star Taron Edgerton, and Elton John himself, they have done everything in their power to keep it in minds all the way through the year, with a huge push happening as we speak. From industry screenings to Q & A’s they have been banging the drum not only of Taron Edgerton’s performance (which is their most likely nomination) but also of the film itself. The star and his director have been working the circuit non-stop, even arranging a live spoiler special with Empire magazine only a few days ago. Logic states this should all be in vain and that the Academy will go nowhere near another musical biopic, even if it is head and shoulders above the one they honored last year. But the Academy doesn’t always abide by logic. Booksmart (Annapurna) One that I personally wish was in the thick of contention rather than looking for a seat at the table. The directorial debut of Olivia Wilde, the film stars Kaitlyn Dever and Beanie Feldstein as academic superstars and best friends who realize they should simply have played more and worked less during High School. Attempting to squeeze all that fun and mischief into one night sends the girls on a spiral of carnage and hilarity. As much as a best picture nomination feels like a long shot at this stage, the real crime will be the overlooking of Billie Lourd, who steals every frame she’s in. Avengers: Endgame (Disney) Unfortunately, or fortunately (depending on if you think marvel films are Cinema) there will be no “Return of king” esque sweep for the culmination of the ten-year story told by Kevin Feige and co. The perfect end for some of Cinema’s most recurring characters in Chris Evans’ Captain America and Robert Downey Jr’s Iron Man. In fact, although Downey apparently refused to jump on the campaign trail for his performance, there are those that would furiously argue his inclusion in the supporting actor category for his touching farewell as Stark. However slim its best picture chances may be, that hasn’t stopped Disney sending out screeners that paint the film as classic ‘awards bait’ (I recommend finding them on twitter) a funny but probably self-aware stunt from the Disney’s marketing department. It would certainly make the night more interesting if “Endgame” found itself nominated against Scorsese’s “The Irishman” in light of the directors much publ Contribute Hire me
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